Pollster: Arizona voters mirror U.S. trends

Lopsided votes vs. Props. 301, 302 may signal a high level of distrust

The Arizona Republic
Novmerb 7, 2010
Dianna M. Náñez

Valley pollster Michael O'Neil said Arizonans mirrored most national trends in voter sentiment but were more deeply concerned about illegal immigration.

They also showed their distrust of politicians by refusing to allow the Legislature to raid funding for early-childhood education and health and land-conservation programs.

On Tuesday, Arizona's electorate voted for a GOP sweep of statewide offices. That vote aligned with voters nationally who rejected many Democratic candidates as a symbol of their dissatisfaction with a Democrat-controlled Congress, President Barack Obama and federal health-care reform.

In Arizona, voters approved Proposition 106, a constitutional amendment to opt out of state or federal health care.

Prop. 106 won with 55 percent of the vote as of Friday's count, signaling Arizonans' opposition to heath-care reform.

Voters who supported the measure were more likely to be conservative or frustrated with the way the federal government is working and strongly supported the "tea party" movement, according to an Associated Press analysis of exit and pre-election polls by Edison Research.

Although many voters nationally and locally say they want smaller government, O'Neil believes voters rejected Propositions 301 and 302 because they did not trust the Legislature to responsibly allocate the millions of dollars that would have been swept from funds for land conservation and children's health and education programs.

That distrust, he said, mirrors national exit polls that showed voters are equally dissatisfied with the Republican and Democratic parties.

A CNN exit poll showed 53 percent of voters were unhappy with Democrats, the same percentage that was dissatisfied with Republicans.

"(Arizona voters) elected a conservative Legislature, but they were unwilling to give them carte blanche when it comes to the budget," he said. "They said, 'There are some things I value more than cutting spending and these are two of them.' "

Seventy-four percent of voters rejected Prop. 301, according to Friday's returns. Prop. 302 was rejected with 70 percent of the vote.

Bryan Smith, 34, a contract negotiator from Gilbert, said he voted mostly Republican and also voted no on Prop. 302. He said he is frustrated with politicians.

"Largely, I think it's just fiscal responsibility," he said in reference to where he thinks national and local government is failing.

The Legislature referred the measures to the ballot in hopes of persuading voters to allow them to use the two voter-approved funds to help plug the budget hole.

Prop. 302 would have transferred an estimated $325 million from First Things First, a program funded through a voter-approved tax on cigarettes.

If Prop. 301 had passed, it would have swept an estimated $124 million from the Land Conservation Fund, which is managed by the state parks board.

Kevin McCarthy, president of the Arizona Tax Research Association, which supported the measures, argued that Props. 301 and 302 failed because voters did not understand the financial impact of the measures.

He said a lack of campaign funds made it difficult to sufficiently market the measures to voters.

"It was an uphill climb in comparison to the money that was being spent on the other side," he said.

The tough economy was voters' greatest concern nationally, with many people considering their vote against Democrats a rebuke of the federal spending.

According to a CNN exit poll, an estimated 62 percent of voters said the economy was the most important issue this year, while health care ranked second with 19 percent and illegal immigration with 8 percent.

But in Arizona, concern over illegal immigration was so important it became a major reason to support Gov. Jan Brewer.

An AP analysis of exit and pre-election polls showed that 75 percent of people who strongly supported Senate Bill 1070, Arizona's controversial immigration law, favored Brewer over Democrat Terry Goddard.

Bobbie Largent, 78, a registered Tempe Republican who wore a tea-party T-shirt to the polls, said Brewer won her vote because of her stance on illegal immigration.

"I was really happy she supported (SB 1070). If we can't get Washington to (enforce immigration) we have to do it ourselves," she said.