Dear, 55, of Laveen, didn't quit, but she went from 10 packs a week to six. With Congress now weighing the biggest federal cigarette-tax hike in history, Dear said the pressure on her pocketbook may soon be enough for her to kick her 30-year habit.
"Every time you buy a pack and you see the cost, it reinforces the fact that you have to quit," she said.
State officials say it's too early
to tell whether the recent state tax hike and the new statewide
smoking ban have curbed per capita smoking rates in Arizona. But
tax officials say sales were down 23 percent in May and 15
percent in June from a year earlier. And a Web-based survey by
the University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University found
that 84 percent of smokers considered quitting after the tax
hike and 28 percent quit for a day or more.
A new analysis by USA Today shows a correlation between
declines in per capita smoking and the size of state-tax
increases. In Connecticut, where taxes went up from 50 cents per
pack to $1.51 per pack in 2002, per capita cigarette consumption
has fallen 37 percent. By comparison, in South Carolina, which
has the lowest tax in the nation at 7 cents per pack (unchanged
since 1977), per capita consumption has fallen just 5 percent
since 2000.
In Arizona, there was a sales decline similar to that in
Connecticut after Arizona raised taxes 60 cents per pack in
2002. According to the Department of Health Services, per capita
pack sales fell 46 percent from 2001 to 2006.
If Congress raises the federal levy on cigarettes as proposed,
experts say the nation could see the largest one-time per capita
decline in smoking ever.
"I expect a bigger drop than almost anything we've seen before,"
said Frank Chaloupka, a University of Illinois economist who has
studied the effect of taxes on smoking.
Pricey habit
Congress wants to raise the federal tobacco tax to fund an
expanded government health-insurance program for children. The
program, called "KidsCare" in Arizona, provides low-cost health
coverage to low-income children.
The U.S. Senate recently approved a 61-cent-per-pack hike; the
House has proposed 45 cents per pack. President Bush is opposed
to increasing spending on the program and has threatened a veto.
The state-tax hike approved by voters in November brought
Arizona's levy to fourth-highest in the nation. Eighty cents per
pack goes to early-childhood education and health programs. Two
cents per pack funds enforcement of the smoking ban that went
into effect in May and applies to most indoor public places.
Counselors and others who help people quit say they immediately
saw increased interest in their programs.
Julie Berger, director and chief executive officer of LaserCare
in Gilbert, which claims low-level laser therapy can help
smokers quit, said she saw a 25 percent jump in business in the
first few months.
"They were complaining about the cost of the cigarettes, saying
it's becoming way too expensive," she said. "Some people weren't
as concerned about their health as they were about the tax."
A state-funded hotline has received more calls because of the
new tax and the smoking ban, program organizers say.
"It's fairly common that if you ask a person why they want to
quit, the cost of smoking is one of the big motivators, whereas
10 or 20 years ago that hardly ever came into the picture," said
Dale Gehring, program coordinator for Arizona Smokers' Helpline.
'One pack at a time'
Critics of tobacco taxes say the taxes tend to have more of an
impact on the poor.
Industry groups predict increased black-market sales and thefts.
They also warn that tax increases can backfire. If smoking
declines, programs that depend on tax revenue could lose money.
"Using taxes to legislate the use of a legal product is not good
public policy," said Thomas Briant, executive director of the
National Association of Tobacco Outlets.
But the risk of losing tax revenue because of less smoking is a
risk Sue Gerard, director of the Arizona Department of Health
Services, said she is willing to take.
In her agency, tobacco taxes fund disease research,
mental-health care and community-health centers. Tobacco taxes
also support the state Medicaid system, schools and programs for
low-income kids.
"If we got to a point that the level of smoking was so low that
we didn't have money to do all these good programs we are doing,
that is a problem I would be happy to face," Gerard said. "You
would have such an effect on the overall health of our
community. You'd see decreases in other costs."
But higher taxes are not enough to make everyone quit.
"Money is just never going to stop it," said long-time smoker
Darin Griffin, 47, of Phoenix, as he walked through downtown
Phoenix taking a drag. "Most of us live not in reality. We buy
one pack at a time."